Global Air Cargo Spot Rates Surge 30% Year-on-Year in April 2026, Reaching Highest Level Since October 2022 Amid Middle East Conflict

Global air cargo spot rates climbed 30% year-on-year in April 2026, reaching an average of USD 3.34 per kilogram — the highest level recorded since October 2022. Long-term contract rates also rose significantly, increasing by 18% over the same period.

The surge was primarily driven by the conflict in the Middle East following the outbreak of the US-Israeli war with Iran in late February 2026, which closed the Strait of Hormuz, reconfigured global supply chains towards longer direct flying routes, increased transit times, and put pressure on available air cargo capacity. The dynamic cargo load factor — which measures volume and the weight of cargo flown relative to available capacity — rose by three percentage points.

Southeast Asia recorded more moderate increases, with spot rates to the Middle East rising 43% and to Europe rising 61%, while North America-bound rates from Southeast Asia were up 33%. Europe-to-North America was the only major corridor to record a decline, with rates falling 17% to USD 2.57 per kilogram. Additionally, year-on-year declines in e-commerce shipment volumes from China moderated some of the demand pressure that would otherwise have compounded supply-side constraints.

Despite the severity of the April figures, market analysts have suggested that the worst may be over for shippers, as capacity gradually returns on routes disrupted by the conflict and market fundamentals reassert control over air freight pricing. It is noted that the divergence between capacity availability and pricing reflects that air freight pricing responds to supply and demand, not costs alone. While some carriers considered reducing flight frequencies due to jet fuel shortages, no dramatic reduction in long-haul intercontinental routes has materialised at scale.